1. Didja accidentally blow through the whole, "We're using our real names" thing on registration? No problem, just send me (Mike) a Conversation message and I'll get you sorted, by which I mean hammered-into-obedient-line because I'm SO about having a lot of individuality-destroying, oppressive shit all over my forum.
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COVID Vax - Are you going to take it?

Discussion in 'The RedBanned Bar & Grill' started by TD Gary, Dec 11, 2020.

  1. That's true. Quoting my former GP: "Almost no one above the age of 40 is 'perfectly healthy', they just don't know it yet".


    There can't ever be natural herd immunity because the effect wears off so fast. It's expected for vaccines to grant a much longer period of immunity. Not to mention it being orders of magnitude cheaper and easier to vaccinate instead of having people go through the sickness over and over and over.
     
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  2. Mike, if false positive test results are so overwhelming, wouldn't that mean that the fatality rate is grossly under-estimtated? Or is the under-estimate simply compensated by false claims of death "from covid" rather than "with covid"?

    Actually, I believe the statistics are correct, as far as they go. I believe that the number of false negatives and false positives, while significant, are relatively small. And I believe the number of deaths "from covid" are more or less correct. HOWEVER, I believe that the actual number of infections is significantly under-reported. For example, I am certain that my wife was infected--she had all of the classic symptoms--but her symptoms were not severe, and testing was not available at the time. And I was probably infected (since we live together)--but I had zero symptoms at all. I believe that in the majority of cases, people are infected without symptoms. As a result, the fatality rate is over-stated.
     
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  3. Not necessarily. The likelyhood of infection in individual cases such as yours is hard to quantify because a small number of infected seems to be responsible for a large percentage of the total spread. The chance of not getting it, even if living together with someone who has it, are actually decent. Not nearly good enough to bet your life on as a risk group member, but decent.


    What makes you believe that? The Heinsberg study in Germany concluded that about one fifth of infections is asymptomatic.
    https://www.uni-bonn.de/news/111-2020

    That was back in May. I find it weird that there's still so much wild speculation going on in the world, when we've had hard data like that for over half a year now.
     
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  4. Martin, I take it back--you are correct. I had seen statistics from the Heinsberg study--I misread it. The article states that there are ten times more unreported cases than reported cases. But I did not notice that had to do with CoV-2, rather than Cov-19. For CoV-19, the ratio is 20%, as you wrote.
     
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  5. The virus is called SARS-CoV-2, the sickness you get from it is called Covid 19. Covid = corona virus disease. 19 is for 2019, the year it first occurred.

    The estimate of 10x under-reporting of cases was extrapolated using the case fatality rate that they concluded from the study, and the reported covid 19 death count at the time. But the sample-size imho is way too small to get anywhere close to reliable case fatality rates. The study had 919 participants. If 6 more people had died, the CFR would be more than double what it is already. For something that affects higher percentages in total, you get more useful results from such a sample size, because variances of a couple cases more or less no longer double/half the resulting percentage.

    The real case fatality rate is probably higher than 0.37% (which already would be 1.2 million Americans), and that is without a healthcare system collapse. But ultimately it doesn't really matter because the long term damage that covid 19 can cause, that isn't immediately lethal, is bad enough that I'd still support a lot of counter measures at a 0% case fatality rate.
    A friend of mine had it and was in hospital for 10 days. Under a healthcare system overload or in a third world country he would have died an excruciating death of slow suffocation. And he's under 50 and has two kids. He has no unusual co-morbidities that I know of either, doesn't even smoke or drink. Slightly overweight and had a pneumonia once, that applies to a lot of people...
     
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  6. Curious that the number of recorded deaths this year is about the same as it was in 2018, except all of them were COVID-19 instead of other heavy-hitters like heart failure or cancer.

    Who knew that staying inside and not breathing around people would have such a positive impact on our health?
    Imagine if we locked down even harder, do you think we could even stop all the COVID-19 deaths?

    Bring on the infinite lockdowns! We're gonna live FOREVER!
     
  7. Well, I live in Melbourne Australia. Australia had the most intense lockdown of any country. We had curfews. If you were out for an "unessential" reason a $1,600 fine on the spot. No one was allowed to travel more than 5 kilometers (about 3.5 miles) from your house. It sucked. It was really hard.

    Even better I was going thru a divorce so I had the joy of being locked down with the old ball and chain throughout.

    Now Melbourne is about 5 million +. Sydney is about 6 million +

    So we are talking about large cities, even though the outback takes up most of the rest of the country.

    Sydney is more densely populated than Los Angeles which would put it only behind NYC if it were part of the US.
    Sydney and Melbourne are both very diverse in population. It's far from being a bunch of white people.

    Ok, now we have the context; are you ready for the results? In 2020 after a year of intense lockdown how many deaths in Sydney? 53.

    In all of Australia: 908

    Look at that. Three digits.

    The US. 340,276.

    It's not even close. Even if you allowed for the fact the US has about 10x's as many people

    908 x 10 = 9,080

    The difference is: The US is engaged in a very stupid culture war.
    Over here everyone, regardless of political leanings, agreed to listen to the scientists and base policy around their advice.

    We are currently at 16 new cases a day and 0 new deaths a day for the entire country. Yes, the lockdown was hard. However, everyone essentially agrees it was the correct thing.

    This could never happen in the US. People are too cynical. Over here we have to have an app on our phones to check-in when we go into department stores ar eat at a restaurant. The government stores the information to monitor the spread. Could you imagine that being proposed in the US? Not a chance. People would think it's a conspiracy to have herds of transexuals hand out participation trophies at little league baseball games to help spread socalism.


    It's just a very, very deep-rooted part of the American psyche, and not too far off from the gun control debate. It's pointless to give data and argue about it. It's something many in the US feel so strongly about they vote singularly on that issue. It's "more" than about the surface, but rather represents a deeply held belief. An ideology.

    I worry about ya'll up north
     
  8. You know it's kinda funny to me reading this. I am originally from Phoenix Az. There was a big movement there
    about how you could live forever. https://peopleunlimitedinc.com/#social1

    The founder...died at 79 of course. But his son, Kevin, used to Dj and throw parties and they always had the best drugs.
    Ted Williams, the famous baseball player, has his head frozen in Scottsdale so he can come back to life.

    Do you feel religions should be resisted for claiming "live forever"?
     
    TD Gary likes this.
  9. That's an interesting number of COVID deaths, because it represents every single death that occurred during that time. No one died of anything else, not even gunshots, stabbings or cancer.
    Really, you have to hand it to us, we cured cancer and solved world peace during lockdown - even with all the riots going on!
     
  10. Not sure, but they should lose tax exempt status if they can't provide what they're selling to everyone at equal opportunity...

    I like to think I wouldn't mind living forever.
    But then there's this creeping thought that always resurfaces: somehow, I'd have to live through everything during that forever.
    That doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun.
     
  11. The table on that page is not a table of statistics. This is what it says above the table:

    Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19.

    And the title of the page: COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios

    The stats are here - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

    Quick calculation on their figures shows fatality rate of 1.759625293% so 98% survival rate is accurate.
     
  12. Stalin would have loved this ;)
     

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